Sun, Sea, and Shipping


The latest addition to my shipping calendar is the Monaco Shipping Event, which is a two-day golf and sailing tournament. It fits neatly between Nor-Shipping in Oslo and Marine Money Week in New York, and sounds like a fabulous shipping social event.

Here’s how I imagine the two days would be like. The sun part is the golf tournament, a couple of rounds at the Monaco Golf Club. Followed by a late night in the bars of Monaco. The next day is sea; winch monkey on some shipowner’s racing yacht at the Monaco Yacht Club. Later on is the shipping bit; listening to a few speeches after dinner and clapping the prize-giving, before the inevitable all-nighter in the Casino of Monte Carlo. Sounds like great fun.

Short Sea Shipping Solution


In researching the shipping conference calendar I came across the “Short Sea 13 European Conference” . Having lived in Falmouth and Plymouth I have always had an affinity with short sea shipping, as these are the ships you see every day. But once working in London the deep sea took over. Now that more and more of the commercial side of deep sea shipping is moving to the Far East, maybe it is time to look closer to home and the UK short sea scene.

The person to speak to is Peter Baker, of PRB Associates. Mr Baker is based in Grimsby, which to Londoners is scarily a long way “Up North”. It is a part of the major Humber ports hub for North Sea ferries. Indeed, having worked for a terminal and ferry operator in Immingham, Mr Baker set up his own consultancy business in 1998. Today, PRB Associates is still closely involved in research and analysis on short sea “unit load” activities.

The term “unit load” is used to differentiate from the homogeneous bulk mode. Mr Baker has produced a cunning methodology that harmonises the complex capacity mix on short sea ferries of lane metre, deck height space and container capacity into a transparent trailer, or feu equivalent. As far as I am aware PRB Associates is the only company producing an annual survey of the UK short sea scene, and to my mind the methodology is an elegant solution to the vexing issue of ferry capacity.

Peter Baker Pic

“I have tried to express capacity in consistent terms that are relevant to the market, no matter the type of ferry, or if trailers are accompanied or unaccompanied.” said Mr Baker. The annual capacity report is a valuable tool for ferry operators and ports. Indeed, I wish I had been aware of the report when I was working in the bank. With so little information available the banks rely on the information the short sea ferry owners supply, but have no third party report to collaborate or mitigate the information.

Are other regional reports available? “I produce an annual Irish Capacity Report and have produced a report on Baltic ferry and container service capacity for a conference in the Baltic” said Mr Baker, and could do so again if asked. You can catch up with Mr Baker in Paris next week at the “Short Sea 13 European Conference” or direct through the PRB Associates website.

How Active are LinkedIn Shipping Groups?


I assume we are all on the LinkedIn network to promote ourselves and / or our companies. By promoting ourselves, I mean looking for a job. Therefore the worth of belonging to a network group is in the number of jobs posted. If you are on LinkedIn to market your company or services then you need to belong to network groups that have active discussions and comments. This is also true for those who use LinkedIn as “how do I…” information exchange.

Thanks to Vijay Hiranandani (http://goo.gl/pMCkJ) I now have another 15 shipping-related LinkedIn groups to consider. I have gone through my expanded list of 54 shipping-related LinkedIn groups and ranked them by jobs advertised last week and the number of discussion in the last week.

LinkedIn Groups ranked by No of Jobs

In the number of jobs advertised there are no real surprises in that the group with the largest number of members also has the most jobs posted. My feeling is that the posting of jobs is going to aggregate toward the larger groups.

LinkedIn Groups ranked by No of Discussions

On the discussion side, the picture is a little different. Some of the groups are very active for their size. The “SeaShip Southeast Asia Maritime & Offshore Network” group only has 613 members but had 28 new discussions last week. I have also included the number of comments, which shows if the group membership is reactive.

Influence of the Chinese New Year on Shipping


The Clarksea Index hit an all-time low last week when it fell $223/day to $7,111/day. Of course, shipping slows down each year with the arrival of the Chinese New Year, when the whole country closes down and everyone goes on holiday. Each year, as China’s influence on shipping has grown, so has the impact of the holiday. This year the difference between the last working week and the first week of the holidays was a drop of -2.74% in the Clarksea Index. This is a relatively small amount compared to the last five years (see chart), but then there is little fat left in the Clarksea Index, which has already lost nearly 20% of its value since the start of 2013.

Influence of the Chinese New Year on Shipping (Feb 2013)

This begs the question how low can the Clarksea Index go? The Clarksea Index is made up of the average weekly earnings of the main shipping sectors weighted by the number of vessels in those sectors. Generally, the diverse sectors tend to balance one another out. A bad week in VLCCs can be cancelled out by a good week for the Capesize or the VLGCs. This can lead to steep falls. During the Boom the Clarksea Index fell over $5,000/day in one week in early 2008, but this only brought it to $37,606/day and few heeded the warning sign.

 We are a long way from those heady days, and the Clarksea Index, which is the heart rate monitor of the industry, is now worryingly low. My gut feeling is that $6,000/day is the lowest it could possible go. However, it is not usual for individual routes to go into negative earnings, pulling down that sector. Last week, for instance, the VLCC route Middle East Gulf (MEG) to Europe and MEG to US Gulf fell to Worldscale (WS) 18.0 and WS 18.5, respectively. If any VLCC was to fix at these rates the equivelent earnings per day are a loss of around -$17,000/day. The tanker sector is not the only one showing negative earnings last week. Some of the Capesize routes and Panamax dry bulk routes went negative. Fortunatley this downward drag was halted by buoyancy from the gas sector (pun intended). But in theory it would be possible for enough routes to post negative earnings for the Clarksea Index itself to go negative. Then the Year of the Dead Duck will be upon us.

How many Shipping Conferences are there in 2013?


I identified 25 different conference subjects covering the shipping vessel type sectors, cargo, trades and business activity. I went through the websites of the usual conference organisers and googled the key words. The result is a listing of over 100 shipping conferences scheduled for 2013. I have posted these onto the calendar. The calendar contains a reasonably good search function, and you can search a conference by the type, organiser and location. Send me a comment to post up a shipping conference, a shipping social gathering or a shipping event of interest to the calendar (public posting doesn’t seem to work).

Highlights;

  • The most popular subject is Shipping Finance (20). Marine Money and Mare Forum have a ship finance conference happening somewhere most months.
  • Ports are the next most popular subject mainly organised by Transport Events.
  • Offshore is a close second, mainly in Houston and London.
  • Did you know there is a Short Sea Conference in Paris this year? No, I didn’t either, but I hope to be going (14 March 2013).
  • London remains the most popular location for all shipping conferences, which is a surprise after I found that most shipping job postings are in Singapore. However, Singapore is second, followed by Shanghai and Hamburg.
  • But the best conference location goes to the Pacific Basin Coal Conference. If you are quick you can still get there. It starts this Sunday in Waikiki at the Hilton Hawaiian Beach Resort.

Shipping Calendar


I have compiled a single calendar of shipping events, simply as a useful tool to see what’s going on. At the moment it is mainly composed of ship finance and sector specific conferences and exhibitions. The calendar is a separate page on my shipping research blog.

I have made the calendar “public”. Therefore, owners and organisers of the events can add add URLs and marketing information. Feel free to post dates of product launches and other PR events. We can also use it to organise shipping social events.

Shipping Book Club


Anybody interested in a shipping book club? Below is a list of books I have read recently that have the commercial realities of shipping at their core. I learnt something new about shipping from each of these books, and each is worth a space on your Kindle. I still chortle to myself when I remember Matt McCleery’s description of a kids soccer game in “The Shipping Man”. The novel feels almost autobiographical with a whiff of that was nearly me.

Shipping Book Club List

John Guy is famous for his long walks, but I don’t think his “The Reluctant Pirate” is an explanation for one of his absences. It does ring true to life, and in his position as PR may have brought him close to some of the City types in the book.

One man I would like to meet, if a little warily, is Max Hardberger (that is his real name). Today his business lifestyle would be prime reality TV fodder alongside “Ice Truckers” and “Swamp-Loggers”. He is a ship and plane repo man working the non-tourist side of the Caribbean. The writing is easy to read and races along, but then he has a degree in English among his other qualifications.

All three writers would aspire to the success and revenue Joseph Wamburgh has generated as an author. Once a full time cop in LA, Wamburgh’s books are anecdotes of police action strung around a central theme. In his latest book “Harbour Nocturne” the theme is true love in the unlikely surroundings of San Pedro Bay (pee-dro), which we know as the Port of LA / Long Beach and the largest container (cans) port in the US. If you want to know why US ports have labour issues, read “Harbour Nocturne”.

 Please let me know if you have read any good shipping books recently.

LinkedIn Shipping Groups


I belong to 37 shipping groups on LinkedIn. These range from the “need-to-be-a-member” like Lloyd’s List (8,905 members) to the obscure Shipping Container Investments (35 members). The table below is my list of groups ranked by the number of members as at February 14 2013.

 

LinkedIn Shipping Groups Feb 2013

 

Originally I joined groups that might direct me toward a new job, and that is still the main aim. Since re-donning the press hat I am also find LinkedIn useful for producing polls and finding experts. Therefore my request is; do you know of any other shipping-related groups you have found useful that are not on the list?

Capesize Orderbook down to 17% of the Fleet


The Capesize orderbook has shrunk from a high of 117% of the fleet in Q4 2008 to just 17% today. Of course, in the meantime the Capesize fleet has swollen from 141.84m dwt (817 ships) to 278.87m dwt (1505 ships), according to Clarkson Research data. Nonetheless, the slowdown in new orders brings the orderbook as a percentage of the fleet down to the level of Q3 2003. There is still another 36.4m dwt to be delivered in 2013, which is actually larger than the total Capesize fleet of thirty years ago.

Clarkson Research list three Capesize thirty year old or older as still live on their database. These include an Odense Lindo-built vessel, the 1982-built, 136,999 dwt “RAM PRASAD” operated by Essar Shipping. After launch she worked for the Danish electricity producer Elsam for twenty years. Clarksons report the vessel was bought by Goldenport Holdings in June 2002, when the Capesize fleet as a mere 88.9m dwt (orderbook 8.1% of the fleet) for $5m. In March 2008, when the Capesize orderbook stood at 93% of the then fleet, Goldenport sold the 25-year old ship to Chinese interests for $25m. Goldenport booked a $20m profit on the sale of the “SAMOS” as she was then called, and traded the ship through one of the best Capesize cycles ever. Seven months later the Capesize market crashed. Shipping, like comedy, is all in the timing.

How do Banks Deal with Problem Loans – Marine Money Ship Finance London Jan 2013 Part 2.


Commercial Banking Panel Session

This section addressed how banks dealt with problem loans, what is the level of bank activity at the moment, and advice for shipowners seeking loans.

Moderator: Robin Das, Director Auld Partners Ltd.

Panel;

  • Mark Long, Head of Transport, Shipping Services and Offshore, HSBC Bank plc.
  • Thor Erling Kylstad, Head of Shipping, London Branch, Nordea Bank.
  • Nigel Anton, MD and Head of Shipping, Standard Chartered Bank.
  • Stephen Fewster, MD, Global Head, Shipping & Transportation Finance, ING Bank.
  • Alex Ryland, Senior VP, Shipping, Offshore & Logistics, DNB Bank ASA.

 Problem loans; what is the solution?

 The panel predictably said a solution was determined on a case-by-case basis and there wasn’t a one size fits all solution. If the owner has money and will put some more into the deal, the bank will try to match it, and maybe grant waivers (this is presumably with a client the bank wants to retain a relationship). Mr Fewster of ING said that they see the shipping industry as a “mean reverting industry” and rates will swing back to the average and that they should give the owner time. (This, of course, depends on when the loan was granted and the average rates used in the loan repayment and cash flow projections). Other solutions include the sale of the loan to a hedge fund or another bank. One bank reported selling a bilateral loan in the secondary market for more than book value – result! However, there is the remote danger that due to “Chinese Walls” between the different parts of the bank, the loan could end up back in the bank, at a higher price!

 The panel admitted that syndicate banks are the major obstacle to achieving a solution (in a syndicated loan). The owner can pick up on this and play one bank against another. It depends on how the bank runs its problem loan book. Does the problem loan stay with the relationship manager, or is it taken away and dealt with by a special solutions group?

But most often it was a question of what is the level of trust between bank and bank and owner? Will the owner with money put more into the deal or are they being dishonest? Of course, the owner knows banks are very reluctant to takeover the ship and realise the loss. An arrest will mean the loss of oil major approval, so reducing the value of a tanker even further.

 Sometimes a loan is doomed, and the panel pointed to certain characteristics that have become evident during restructuring. One is a high chartered-in position with high operational leverage. The second is very high lending rates, for example ships bought at the peak of the market. Another characteristic highlighted by Mr Ryland of DNB is SOS – small, old and specialised! This is where the bank tends to lose money (remember the fees generated are relatively small and writing off a loan can destroy the division profit for that

The panel felt that there will be more restructuring in 2013. The ships are getting older and the restructuring of a few years ago in the expectation of a market upturn may no longer be commercially viable. The so-called “Zombie” companies as Lloyd’s List (David Osler) put it are being supported because the banks do not want to arrest the vessels.

 Going forward several of the banks on the panel expect to do new business in 2013, and have mandates to grow the shipping book. The offshore, cruise and gas (LNG) sectors were mentioned as sectors that meet the banks credit and return expectations. The panel see consolidation among shipping companies as a feature in 2013, and although some banks are growing their books, the overall effect will be less credit available to a smaller group of clients. These clients can be shipping companies with financial investors. Banks will always consider the same factors;

  • The management, financial, commercial and technical.
  • The business plan
  • The initial capital structure
  • The mix of employment on the vessels

 The client profile today would be corporate and could include capital private equity with the banks having comfort from recourse to a corporate balance sheet with protection of covenants. There would also have to cross sell to other products within the bank, so that the bank is optimising its use of its capital, which is now a scarce resource. Banks would also like to see evidence of long term commitment to shipping. A typical market clearing transaction today would be:

  • 65-70% financing
  • 15 year profile
  • 5-7 year tenor
  • Pricing at plus or minus 300 bps
  • Upfront fees 1-1.25%
  • Plus the usual covenants.

Mr Ryland of DNB pointed at that LTVs today are checked dynamically every six months to test the banks security, and not historically every twelve months as in the past.

 There was a very interesting question from Richard Greiner of the shipping accountants Moore Stephens. “What is your position about actually having ships on your balance sheet?”

Mr Anton said “Standard Chartered does own ships, we have a leasing division.” The panel said that generally the banks don’t want to own ships on the balance sheet. In the short term banks will warehouse troubled ships with friendly clients or convert loans into leasing deals, and so avoiding taking ships on the balance sheet. Mr Greiner pointed out that the auditors are beginning to scrutinise the warehousing solution and these ships will be treated as being on the balance sheet.