New Data Pages in Tradewinds
April 25, 2014 Leave a comment
New Data Pages in Tradewinds
Tradewinds have quietly updated the data pages in the back of the weekly paper. There was no announcement and I have to admit, it was a few weeks until I noticed. The range of data is more comprehensive, with relative new-comer Alibra Shipping (link) providing timecharter equivalent data and VesselsValue leveraging their Big Data approach to introduce some comparative value tables. For those of you without a copy of Tradewinds to hand, below is a description of the old and the new tables.
The previous Data Pages consisted of World Stock Watch, which ran over one and half pages. The alphabetical listing of share prices was supplemented by a table of high yield shipping bonds, a forex table and half page entitled Scorecard, which was showed share price movements in data and graphical form. These were followed by two pages entitled Market Figures. These consisted of graphs of the Baltic Exchange (link) indices (SSY Capesize, ICAP Handymax and Supramax), the Howe Robinson Containership Index (link), the Riverlake Tanker Index (link), and Clarksons Container Index (link). This page also contained list of tanker and dry bulk carrier fixtures. The facing page was largely taken up with the Fearnleys report. The VesselsValue.com ship prices table was a recent addition, plus Peninsula Petroleum’s bunker report. Finally, a couple of Baltic Exchange tanker graphs were tacked on for good measure. Altogether you had a share prices, the freight rates for the bulk, gas and container trades, ship value and a freight market report.
The new version kicks off with a dramatically re-designed Stock Watch from Bloomberg, with companies listed by sector. The lists are alphabetical, and it is easy to pick out key comparators like market cap. The companies with the largest market cap in each sector feature separately in another table, but not in the main table, which I am not so keen about. Maybe duplicating the listing might be useful, so that the largest cap companies appear in both tables, making comparisons with peers easier.
The share price info is now confined to one page, giving more room for Markets Data. This starts off with (in my opinion) the most useful chart in the history of shipping analysis, the Clarksea Index. The Clarksea Index is the heart rate monitor of shipping, and the best chart to illustrate the current and historical health of the industry. Next to this are the Baltic Exchange indices, which are important to people in shipping, but difficult to understand for those on the outside (as shown by the mainstream business press reporting on a steep fall in the BDI with a picture of a containership). Below this is a new table of dry bulk carrier time charter estimates, provided by Alibra Shipping Limited, who I had not heard of before, but good for them for getting exposure in Tradewinds. You should check out their website, too. It has a useful TCE-required to service a sale price calculator, which later in the year will be the focus of a separate blog.
Alongside is the SSY Capesize indices, and below a welcome addition of the dry bulk and iron ore futures contracts from FIS. This is supplemented by the iron ore prices from The Steel Index. We then go straight to wheat prices from the Chicago Board of Trade.
The Peninsula bunker tables returns in an expanded form. The Howe Robinson Container Index also returns, with the addition of the Hamburg-based New Contex Time Charter Assessment, which is similar to the Clarksons container time charter rates in that the size range ends at the old Panamax size. Maybe Alphaliner or Dynamar could provide Tradewinds with some assessments for the larger size ranges? The third container chart is the World Container Index.
The final page contains the tanker data. There is a table of time charter assessments from our new data friends Alibra Shipping. The ICAP table of Worldscale TCE estimates has a very useful assessment of the impact of slow steaming. In the 7 March table, a VLCC on the standard Ras Tanura to LOOP route fixed at WS29.5 was calculated as a loss of USD3548/day whereas the same voyage slow steaming is a positive US$6281/day. The Baltic Exchange tanker charts are still on the page, as is the table of crude oil prices.
Sales and purchase data from VesselsValue (VV) cover the final third of the page, and there are some interesting additions. The VV Momentum Index indicates the direction of prices for a particular vessel type during the previous 90 days. If in those 90 days there was an upward movement in price for 45 days, and a downward movement for 45 days, these would cancel each other out and produce a flatline growth, equal to an index number of 50. Therefore, any index number over 50 indicates upward momentum, and an index number of less than 50 indicates downward momentum. VV also contribute a price Volatility Index, or any sort, is brave, because the standard deviation is not well an everyday concept, but here in graphical format it is clear. There is a sharp upward turn in the red line (or there was in mid-March 2014) when I wrote this) and this means there is a high level of uncertainty of the direction of VLCC price. The Tonnage on the Water table is a bit like the fleet table in the Shipping Intelligence Weekly but without the aggregate numbers, so it is lacking context. Below this is the Seasure demo table. The untitled table at the bottom right of the page is US$ per cargo unit, either dwt, teu or cbm. The Fearnleys data re-appeared last week (18 April 2014) as an additional page
So next time you pick up a copy of Tradewinds, do not close the paper after glancing through the job adverts, take a closer look at the new and more comprehensive data pages.